The ACC's nightmare is nearing reality. The conference could completely miss out on theCollege Football Playoff.
Duke beat No. 17 Virginia 27-20 in overtimeon Saturday night in the ACC championship game for the Blue Devils' first conference title since 1962. But with Duke at 8-5 and highly unlikely to be ranked in Sunday's College Football Playoff rankings, there's a realistic scenario that no ACC team will make the 12-team field.
The playoff is made up of the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large teams. Duke was unranked in Tuesday's rankings and behind the highest-ranked teams in the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC. Additionally, American Conference winner Tulane and Sun Belt winner James Madison were ranked. They're going to stay ranked too.
With those five conferences set to take the automatic berths, the ACC's lone hope hinges on the grace of the committee.No. 9 Alabama lost to No. 3 Georgia in the SEC title gameandNo. 11 BYU lost to No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. Will that be enough for No. 12 Miami to move into the top 10 in the rankings to secure an at-large berth for the ACC? Or will Miami — which beat Notre Dame in Week 2 — jump ahead of the No. 10 Fighting Irish for that last at-large spot even though neither team played on Saturday?
When the 12-team playoff was created, it was hard to envision one of the four power conferences missing out on the playoff entirely. The only plausible scenario was basically what has played out in the ACC so far this season. The conference may not have a team good enough to make it as an at-large and the conference champion was an unlikely team who had a brutal time outside of ACC play.
Duke went 6-2 in the ACC but 1-3 outside the conference. The Blue Devils lost to Illinois, Tulane and UConn in non-conference play but won a five-way tie for second behind Virginia thanks to the winning percentage of the team's opponents. Duke's opponents had a better conference record than the teams that SMU, Miami, Pitt and Georgia Tech all played. Those four teams were all tied with Duke for second.
Miami lost to Louisville and SMU in conference play. Georgia Tech lost to NC State and Pitt in the final month of the season. A win in any of those four games by the Hurricanes or Yellow Jackets would have saved the ACC from this potential scenario.
Duke coach Manny Diaz said after the game that his team was a playoff-caliber team. But it's hard to envision the committee thinking the same thing.
"They don't have wins like this. They don't have a win against a team like that...@DukeFOOTBALLis a playoff team." 🏆@Coach_MannyDiaz's final message to the@CFBPlayoffCommittee.pic.twitter.com/s3Av1y1r1P
— ACC Football (@ACCFootball)December 7, 2025
How Duke won
Virginia (10-3) tied the game with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter on a great catch by Eli Wood after he was pushed out of bounds.
But Duke opened overtime with a fourth-down touchdown of its own on a pass from Darian Mensah to Jeremiah Hasley, and a roughing-the-passer penalty on the play put the Cavaliers on their own 40-yard line to start the drive instead of at the 25.
Did that field position play into Virginia's thought process? The Cavaliers went with a trick play to start its drive and QB Chandler Morris was intercepted by Duke's Luke Mergott to end the game.
Mensah finished the game 19-of-25 passing for 196 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. He came to Duke from Tulane — a team that's in the College Football Playoff after winning the American Conference — and threw 30 touchdowns over the 2025 season.
Morris was 21-of-40 passing for 216 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Virginia outgained the Blue Devils on Saturday night but they couldn't capture their overtime magic for a fourth time in 2025. Virginia entered the ACC title game 3-0 in overtime games with wins over Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina.
