More voters means fiercer competition, and that's a good thing for theGrammy Awards.
The 3,800 music creators and professionals who joined the Recording Academy in 2025 – many of them young, female and people of color – impacted the 2026 nominations by producing one of the most diverse slates in decades.
So how will the nearly15,000 voting memberscast their ballots? Canleading nomineeKendrick Lamar– with nine - maintain the momentum from his category sweep of five awards last year?
Super Bowl halftime headlinerBad Bunny, with six nods, is inarguably the biggest global music star at the moment, but will his music – engaging in any language – translate to wins in major categories such as album and record of the year?
Will child-actor-turned-songwriter-turned-singerLeon Thomascapitalize on his six nominations, including best new artist?
And what aboutLady Gaga,the most nominated female artist with seven? Shockingly, none of her14 Grammyshave been in the Big Four categories (song of the year, record of the year, album of the year and best new artist). Will that change this year?
As we wait for the Feb. 1Grammy Awardsceremony, here are our best prognostications for who will win the Big Four categories:
Who will win Grammys record of the year in 2026?
"DtMF," Bad Bunny
"Manchild," Sabrina Carpenter
"Anxiety," Doechii
"WILDFLOWER," Billie Eilish
"Abracadabra," Lady Gaga
"luther," Kendrick Lamar with SZA
"The Subway," Chappell Roan
"APT.," ROSÉ, Bruno Mars
Who will win:"Abracadabra," Lady Gaga
Who should win:"Abracadabra," Lady Gaga
An argument could be made for Chappell Roan'sdreamy ruminationon the one that got away,Doechii's dexterous interplayof melody and rhymes and Carpenter's gender-flipping sardonic genius. But Lady Gaga's searing synth-pop anthem – layered with conflict, crackling with energy and offering one of her most robust vocal performances – deserves the win. Besides the enchanting lush production, who doesn't appreciate a pop song that peppers a few Latin words ("amor" and "morta") into the chorus?
Who will win Grammys album of the year in 2026?
"DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS," Bad Bunny
"SWAG," Justin Bieber
"Man's Best Friend," Sabrina Carpenter
"Let God Sort Em Out," Clipse, Pusha T & Malice
"MAYHEM," Lady Gaga
"GNX," Kendrick Lamar
"MUTT," Leon Thomas
"CHROMAKOPIA," Tyler, The Creator
Who will win: "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS," Bad Bunny
Who should win:"GNX," Kendrick Lamar
Bad Bunny would make history with the first all-Spanish language release to nab the coveted award. Given hisglobal impact, lyrics that target the importance of cultural identity and the album's engrossing musical diversity that spans reggaeton, house and sounds of his native Puerto Rico (plena, salsa), it seems likely he'll get to deliver an acceptance speech. And it would be well-deserved. But leading nominee Lamar, with his late-2024 surprise release, dropped an avalanche of West Coast hip-hop thatshowcased the scope of his talentswith the swagger of "Squabble Up," the fiery grip of "Man at the Garden" and tender interplay with SZA on "Luther" – an album both musically cohesive and chaotic.
Who will win Grammys song of the year in 2026?
"Abracadabra," Lady Gaga. Written by Henry Walter, Lady Gaga and Andrew Watt.
"Anxiety," Doechii. Written by Jaylah Hickmon.
"APT.," ROSÉ, Bruno Mars. Amy Allen, Christopher Brody Brown, Rogét Chahayed, Henry Walter, Omer Fedi, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Chae Young Park and Theron Thomas.
"DtMF," Bad Bunny. Written by Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, Scott Dittrich, Benjamin Falik, Roberto José Rosado Torres, Marco Daniel Borrero, Hugo René Sención Sanabria and Tyler Thomas Spry.
"Golden" (From "KPop Demon Hunters"), HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI. Written by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick.
"luther," Kendrick Lamar with SZA. Written by Jack Antonoff, Roshwita Larisha Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Ink, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Kendrick Lamar, Mark Anthony Spears, Solána Rowe and Kamasi Washington.
"Manchild," Sabrina Carpenter. Written by Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter.
"WILDFLOWER," Billie Eilish. Written by Billie Eilish O'Connell and Finneas O'Connell.
Who will win:"Golden," HUNTR/X
Who should win:"Abracadabra," Lady Gaga
It would have made more sense for "Golden" to make the cut for record of the year rather than song. Its message of female empowerment is lyrically laudable, but the out-of-the-dark-into-the-light-yay-girl-power proselytizing is delivered with zero gravitas. And why would it be, when the primary audience for"KPop Demon Hunters"is preteen girls? Meanwhile, Lady Gaga steeped herdance floor rompin visual imagery (the lady in red, haunting dances, dark moonlight) and the kind of complex lyrics that require untangling to fully appreciate her study of self-doubt, death and yearning.
Who will win Grammys best new artist in 2026?
KATSEYE
The Marias
Addison Rae
Alex Warren
Lola Young
Who will win:Alex Warren
Who should win:Olivia Dean
"Hype House" TikTok star Warren made noise in the United Kingdom and Ireland in 2024 with the release of his EP, "You'll be Alright, Kid (Chapter 1)." But his official full-length debut in 2025 bearing a similar name – "You'll Be Alright, Kid" – conquered the U.S. charts with a plodding ballad so aptly titled "Ordinary." Dean, meanwhile, has already solidified her standing as a stylish soul-pop singer with pipes reminiscent of Amy Winehouse and the classy aura of Sade, spotlighted on her breakthrough single, "Man I Need."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Bold Grammy Award predictions: Who will win vs. who should win
