Valentine's weekend will be a soaker across the South, with locally heavy rain and a few severe thunderstorms possible from Texas to Florida to the Carolinas and Virginia.
While this wet weekend forecast sounds like a bummer, there are several "saving graces:"
1. It won't rain the entire weekend in any one area of the South.
2. There's no bitter cold air in place, so this isn't another southern winter storm the likes of the recent ice storm ("Fern") nor the Carolinas clobbering ("Gianna").
3. This doesnotappear to be a significant severe weather outbreak, nor a major flash flood threat.
4. In fact, for much of the region, this rain is sorely needed. (More on that later.)
When Will It Rain?
The maps below show the timing of the rain through Sunday.
In general, rain moves into the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night, spreads into the Mississippi Valley Saturday, then into the Southeast Sunday, then should be off the East Coast by Monday.
(MORE MAPS:Daily US Rain, Snow Forecast)
Severe Threat
In general, we expect the severe weather threat with this system to be rather low and isolated.
- Friday night: A few severe storms in western Texas and southwest Oklahoma could produce large hail and strong wind gusts.
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- Saturday - Saturday night: The area shown below has at least a chance of a few severe storms Saturday and Saturday night. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado are the main threats.
- Sunday - Sunday night: This isolated severe threat will sweep across the Deep South and northern Gulf Coast from southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia during the day, then across parts of the Florida Peninsula Sunday evening. Again, strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible.
(MORE:15 Severe Weather Safety Tips That Could Save Your Life)
Heavy Rain Threat
Parts of the South may be soaked by locally heavy rain this weekend.
The Ozarks into the Mid-South region, and from the Florida Panhandle to the Carolinas, could pick up 2 inches or more of rain, which could triggerlocalized flash flooding.
While this doesn't appear to be a widespread flash flood danger, keep this in mind if you're driving in these areas this weekend. Never try to drive through a flooded stretch of road. Turn around, instead.
(MORE:Flooding Is One Of Most Deadly Weather Phenomena)
'Goldilocks' Rain?
Given the relatively low threats of both severe weather and flash flooding, this might be a near-ideal case of drought relief.
As you can see in the map below, much of the South is currently in drought. Parts of Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas are in extreme drought as of mid-February.
Over the past few days, fires have burned in parts ofFlorida,western North Carolina,near Shawnee, Oklahoma, and theTexas Panhandle.
It's also been among thefive driest winters-to-datein over a dozen cities including Charlotte, Dallas, Little Rock, Raleigh and West Palm Beach, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him onBluesky,X (formerly Twitter)andFacebook.
