After nearly four years, thegrinding warbetween Russia andUkraineis approaching a staggering battlefield toll: nearly half a million dead and 1½ million wounded or missing across both sides.
The steep estimates, presented in a study by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, include 1.2 million Russians dead, wounded or missing, with as many as 325,000 killed since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukraine has suffered somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 battlefield casualties, including up to 140,000 fatalities, according tothe study published Tuesday.
The figures do not include civilian deaths, but the war has taken a growing toll on Ukraine's population, as Russia continues itsnearly-daily aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The latest such attack involved aRussian drone strike on a passenger trainin the northeast of the country, killing at least five people Wednesday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denounced the strike as terrorism as he called for increased pressure on Moscow amidpeace negotiations with the United States to bring the war to a close. Kyiv has been retaliating with strikes on Russian border regions, where local officials have alsoreported civilian casualties.
"Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power," the authors note in the study, which cites CSIS estimates, British Defense Ministry intelligence, data collected by the Russian news outlet Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service, and interviews with U.S., European, Ukrainian and other government officials.
Christopher Tuck, an expert in conflict and security at King's College London who was not involved in the study, said the figures were credible and broadly in line with estimates from NATO, Western governments, and media organizations. The findings "capture the essential reality that this is a war of attrition with staggering human costs," he told NBC News by email.
That assessment appears to contradict recent proclamations by Russian President Vladimir Putin that Moscow has the upper hand and its victory is all but inevitable, as months of peace talks pushed by the Trump administration have so far failed to bring a resolution to the conflict.
"Russia's massive losses for tiny gains would normally be seen as a sign of declining military efficiency," Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said by email. "It certainly undermines the claims from the Trump administration and others that Russia is some great power marching on to inevitable victory."
Asked about the report's estimates of Russian casualties during his daily briefing Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told NBC News that such reports should not be seen as reliable.
"We suggest focusing on the information provided by the Ministry of Defense," Peskov said.
But the Russian Defense Ministry has not provided any recent estimates of its dead, wounded or missing.
Both Russia and Ukraine generally do not report their casualty numbers, but both sides tend to underestimate their fatalities while saying the other side's losses far exceed their own.
The latest official statements from the Russian side came years ago when then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu estimated in the fall of 2022 that Russia had lost nearly 6,000 troops. While Russia sustains losses, Putin said in October, they are "many times" smaller than those suffered by Ukraine.
Zelenskyytold NBC News last Februarythat 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and another 380,000 wounded since 2022. Tens of thousands were missing in action or in Russian captivity, he said. On Monday, Zelenskyy said 35,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in December alone.
The Russian outlet Mediazona, working with the BBC's Russian service and a team of volunteers, has beencompiling a named list of the Russian military fatalities, which currently stands at more than 163,000.
The report calls Russian losses "extraordinary," adding that "no major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II."
The pace of Russia's advance, the report states, has at times been slower than the notoriously bloody Battle of the Somme during World War I, with troops advancing at an average rate of just 230 feet per day in a push to control thecity of Pokrovsk, an important Ukrainian transport and supply hub.
Both Russia and Ukraine have mobilized civilians to serve on the front lines, but Moscow has relied heavily on contracting recruits andformer convicts. Ukraine has been suffering from a severe manpower shortageamid draft evasion, despite waves of mobilization and a lowering of the conscription age in 2024.
Trump often cites his own estimates about troop casualties in Ukraine. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week,he said 31,000 soldiers diedin the war in December, and 27,000 the month before. He did not specify if it was an estimate provided by his own intelligence or whether it reflects a combined toll for both sides.
Trump consistently says he wants to stop the slaughter and "save lives" in Ukraine. He has been pushing Kyiv to agree to a deal that would see it cede territories it controls in the country's east. Days after thefirst trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. last week, Trump said Tuesday that "very good things" were happening in negotiations aimed at ending the war, and Russia has confirmed more talks are scheduled for this weekend.
Putin's foreign aide Yuri Ushakov said Wednesday that the Russian leader is ready meet with Zelenskyy in Moscow, which he said was suggested by Trump. "We will guarantee his safety and the necessary working conditions," Ushakov told Russian state media.
