The weeks after Thanksgiving might just be a tease for some intense Arctic cold that could arrive later in December.
So, cold weather lovers — your time appears to be approaching. And snow lovers, the odds are rising, but nothing is definite yet.
For the rest of us, there's just 118 days until spring.
Cold air will be spreading over the Midwest and Great Lakes around Thanksgiving, said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an e-mail to USA TODAY.
However, he said it will not be a major Arctic blast. He calls it "just a snack (maybe a yam) before the whole turkey appears by the second week of December" – possibly courtesy of the polar vortex.
Weather service forecast into early December
The National Weather Service says that "below normal temperatures are favored for the Central and Northern U.S., including northern parts of the Pacific Northwest, the Great Plains, parts of Texas, and the interior Mid-Atlantic. Below normal temperatures may start as early as November 25, with spatial coverage and confidence increasing during the Nov 26-30 period."
Cooler temperatures are forecast to persist into early December, the weather service said. "Below normal temperatures remain across the northern tier and Great Plains and expand eastward to the Northeast coast."
A 'stretched polar vortex'
While the cold will be harsh, it won't be the true Arctic blast that Maue expects later in the month: He said there will be a cold period centered upon Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend with a dip in the jet stream — but the remaining "fully loaded" Arctic polar vortex may remain locked up in Canada (for now) into early December. We will wait for a trigger."
Polar vortex expert and climatologistJudah Cohen, a research scientist at MIT, told USA TODAY that the real cold is on its way for mid-December. "The increase in severe winter weather (cold and snow) will be focused in Canada and the US east of the Rockies (rather than Europe.)"
Why is this? "I am feeling much more confident that the predicted upcoming large polar vortex disruption should be framed as a "stretched polar vortex" rather than your classical "sudden stratospheric warming."
(Sudden stratospheric warming, counterintuitively, can lead to harsh cold down here at the surface.)
Short but intense cold
He said "these events tend to be hard hitting but of shorter duration."
"A sudden stratospheric warming presented the possibility of influencing the weather for up to two months, while the influence from this polar vortex disruption will be at most on the order of weeks and likely limited to December."
Cohen said that because the polar vortex will be relatively weak while it stretches, it will likely be more intense than a run of the mill polar vortex stretch, similar to what happened in January 2024 and 2023.
"The last strong stretched polar vortex in December was December 2022 and was responsible for the deadly and record-breaking Buffalo blizzard" that killed dozens.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Winter weather forecast for 2025 warns of polar vortex, Arctic cold
