In terms of how many teams can feasibly win the Super Bowl, this could be the deepest NFL playoff field we've ever seen.
Part of that is the lack of a truly transcendent team. But it's unique to see a 14-team field in which a reasonable case can be made for 12 of the teams making or even winning the Super Bowl (yeah, there are two teams in which it would take a miracle). The Los Angeles Chargers are probably the strongest No. 7 seed we have ever seen in the current 14-team format, unless it's the Green Bay Packers over in the NFC.
You can pick just aboutany combination of teams from each side of the bracket to face off in Super Bowl LXand it wouldn't sound wild. Here are the power rankings as we start the playoffs, from least likely to most likely to win the Super Bowl:
14. Carolina Panthers
If the Panthers make the Super Bowl, they'd be the weakest team ever to get in. By a mile. Congratulations to the Panthers for making it in the field, but they're an 8-9 team that would be big underdogs in any remaining game they'd play. They have a -69 point differential, the fourth-worst for a playoff team in NFL history,according to NFL researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno. They do have wins over the Packers and Rams, so maybe there's a tiny bit of hope for an upset win, but it's obvious which team ranks last on this list.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have a better shot than the Panthers to make a Super Bowl, but that doesn't mean it's a good shot. Their offense is limited and the defense has taken a step back from previous years. The Steelers won 10 games, somehow, but with an offense that finished 25th in yards gained and a defense that finished 26th in yards allowed. It's a cool story for Aaron Rodgers to make it back to the playoffs, and would be amazing if he reached the Super Bowl, but we can safely cross the Steelers off the list.
12. San Francisco 49ers
Heading into Week 18, the 49ers needed one win to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Would it be that unbelievable for the offense to heat up again, after a bad finale against the Seahawks, and make a deep playoff run? Any offense that averaged 42.3 points in December is capable. The reason the 49ers rank this low is because their defense, which already was without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa and just lost Warner's replacement Tatum Bethune, probably isn't good enough to win three straight road games. They finished 27th indefensive DVOA. But it says something about the depth of the field that the 49ers rank 12th and still have a feasible chance to win it all.
11. Green Bay Packers
The Packers' story is similar to the 49ers' story. If they were healthy, they might be No. 1 on this list. But they're not. They're without linemen Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt on defense and tight end Tucker Kraft on offense, among others. That's a reason they lost four in a row to finish the season. There's some nuance to that losing streak — a Week 16 loss to the Bears was very fluky and Green Bay rested starters in Week 18 — but this team's ceiling has gotten much lower, especially after the Parsons injury. But for a No. 7 seed they have a decent argument to make a run and win the NFC, a much better case than practically any No. 7 seed before them (other than perhaps the Green Bay team in 2023 that throttled Dallas in the wild-card round).
10. Los Angeles Chargers
Usually the No. 7 seeds have been happy to be in the playoffs, and then are predictably blown out in their postseason opener. The Chargers are not that team. Los Angeles was 11-5 before resting starters in Week 18, and still almost beat a Broncos team chasing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. A great head coach/QB combo can go a long way, and the Chargers have that with Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert. L.A.'s defense, led by coordinator andtop head-coaching candidate Jesse Minter,was top five in yards allowed and has given up more than 20 points in a game just once since Oct. 19. The flaw is the offensive line, which lost both standout tackles to season-ending injuries. If the Chargers were healthy this might be the unquestioned top team in the NFL because everything else is impressive.
9. Chicago Bears
The Bears have had a bit of a weird season. Until a Black Friday game, they were living off close wins against bad teams. They blew out the Eagles the day after Thanksgiving and played better for a few weeks. Then down the stretch they had a miracle win against the Packers, lost to the 49ers and then lost at home to the Lions after Detroit had been eliminated from the playoffs. They have had a fine season, getting the No. 2 seed. Their inconsistency is a reason they're not higher on the list. They're probably one good offseason away from being a more reliable pick.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
It's hard to shake the idea of the Eagles making a run. The talent is still impressive. We remember how good they were last season and particularly in the Super Bowl win over the Chiefs. Yet the offense has been maddening most of the season. The last time we saw the starting offense, it had 16 yards and no completions as it barely held on to a win over the Bills in Week 17. It is hard to buy the Eagles' offense playing well enough for four weeks in a row to repeat as Super Bowl champions. The Eagles were 23rd in passing yards and 18th in rushing yards; last season's team did everything at an efficient level on offense and this season's unit does nothing well. Still, look at the roster. You can't count the Eagles out, especially with their stellar defense.
7. Buffalo Bills
The quarterback-centric crowd will all pick the Bills to win the AFC. That's fine. Josh Allen is fantastic. But the Bills also have blowout losses to the Falcons and Dolphins on their résumé. The run defense is bad, allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season. There's no alpha playmaker in the passing game. Their leading receiver was Khalil Shakir, with 719 yards. There are some things to like, such as a solid pass defense and NFL rushing champion James Cook, but picking the Bills to win it all is a pick on Allen putting the team on his back for a month. Which can happen.
6. Houston Texans
The people picking the Bills to make the Super Bowl might have missed the Thursday night game in Week 12. The Texans destroyed the Bills' offense in a 23-19 win. Houston sacked Josh Allen eight times. Seattle and Denver could argue, but this is the best defense in the NFL. The offense isn't great, but with some help from key rookies in the second half, it did improve. And C.J. Stroud is a good quarterback, albeit one without much help. Also, Houston has a much easier matchup than the Bills or any other AFC team playing on wild-card weekend, as it faces a mediocre Pittsburgh team. In a wide-open AFC, the team with a great defense and an NFL-best nine-game winning streak is as good of a pick as any.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
Maybe the Jaguars should be higher. Trevor Lawrence had his best season, accounting for 38 touchdowns. The Jagurars' defense ranked 11th in yards allowed and eighth in points allowed. Jacksonville was sixth indefensive DVOA, thanks in large part to 31 takeaways, which was second-best in the NFL. The Jaguars were fifth in EPA (expected points added) per play allowed as well. Jacksonville has won eight in a row, and somehow is still an underdog in its playoff opener against Buffalo. Make no mistake: The Jaguars can win it all.
4. New England Patriots
If you've paid even the slightest bit of attention to the MVP debate, you know the Patriots had a very easy schedule. They beat one team that finished above .500, knocking off the Bills in Week 5. It ranked as the third-easiest schedule since 1978,according to DVOA. Here's the thing: The two teams that faced an easier schedule, the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams, both made the Super Bowl. This isn't college football in which every conference has a gimme or two; going 14-3 against NFL competition is hard. It's OK to question the Patriots, but they have an MVP candidate quarterback in Drake Maye and a Coach of the Year candidate in Mike Vrabel. There isn't a team in the field they can't beat, even if they didn't stack many quality wins during the regular season.
3. Los Angeles Rams
Many will be picking the Rams to win the Super Bowl. Getting the No. 5 seed and a matchup against the Panthers, the weakest team by far in the playoff field, certainly helps. The Rams are a very good team that didn't play its best late, but Sean McVay should be able to fix whatever issues there were over the past three weeks when Los Angeles lost twice. Matthew Stafford is the probable NFL MVP, though Drake Maye could win it instead in a close vote. There's no reason to believe the Rams can't win the Super Bowl, though the likely path of three road wins in a row won't be easy to navigate. That's why they didn't crack the top two.
2. Denver Broncos
Maybe you don't like the Broncos this season. Understandable. They had a ridiculous 11 wins by eight or fewer points. The offense has some remarkably bad performances. But this is a 14-3 team that is two home wins from a Super Bowl. The advantage of having a bye can't be overstated. Since the NFL changed the playoff format to give only one team in each conference a bye, five of 10 No. 1 seeds have made a Super Bowl. Over the past three seasons it's four of six. There's a massive edge having to win only two playoff games instead of three, as everyone else in the AFC has to do. Even if you believe the Broncos aren't the best team in the AFC, it's impossible to deny they have the easiest path to the Super Bowl.
1. Seattle Seahawks
TheSeahawks were the NFL's best team in the regular seasonand it's hard to debate otherwise. Now a defense that was arguably the best in the NFL this season and had an unbelievable performance in Week 18 against the 49ers needs just two home wins to reach the Super Bowl. The stumbling block will be Sam Darnold, who needs to prove he can play well on a big stage. But Darnold's teams are 28-6 over the past two seasons and he's a big part of that success. He has been good for Seattle most of this season. And the Seahawks don't need him to carry the load, they just need him to get the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, avoid mistakes and let a fantastic defense do the rest. There are plenty of good options for your Super Bowl pick this season, but Seattle is your most likely champion.
